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Thread: Mpox Clade 1b: new 2024 outbreak

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    Administrator Ellsworth's Avatar
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    Mpox Clade 1b: new 2024 outbreak

    Last weekend I came across information about a new strain of Mpox that seems to have some potential for a negative global impact.

    The 2022 outbreak was Clade IIb, this new one is Clade Ib.

    Clade Ib has a higher mortality rate (10% children and around 4.5% in adults).

    Clade Ib is apparently more readily spread by touch and remains infectious on surfaces that have been touched.

    And is possibly passed more readily via airborne means.

    It appears to be unknown if the current Mpox vaccines work against this new version.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...059-9/fulltext

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...utbreak-fears/

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7319a3.htm

    https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news-aler...e-i-geographic

    Just an FYI. By reading those links you know exactly as much as I do about it.

    Edited to add:
    https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbrea...ssessment.html

    "Overall risk: We assess the overall risk to the general U.S. population as very low, with moderate confidence. Overall risk is assessed by considering the likelihood and impact of infection across the population (see Methods section). This assessment may change as new evidence becomes available."

    No abundance of caution. If I had been stressed, now I'm relieved.

    The Canadian version is here:
    https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...lic-congo.html

    Edited to add:

    Why do most of the Youtube sources that address this new Mpox seem low-budget?
    Deepfakes and AI have me looking skeptically at the kind of sources talking about this on Youtube.

    There are quite a few recent sources on google that talk about it.
    For an outbreak that seems approximately a year old, why the recent buzz?
    Pride month? The election? Implication being, is this hype for effect?

    Edited to add:
    One of those younger than me, and more articulate than me, political commentators might ask...
    "Is this a deliberate introduction of a wedge issue into the political landscape, when the issue itself doesn't warrant it based upon the potential/realistic risk?"

    That's not a political question by nature. That's a personal health question (I'd argue).
    With respect for the victims of Mpox Clade I.

    Edited to add:

    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adg8116

    I can imagine asking AI, [s]"Please explain that article to me in a way that I'll understand it, from the perspective that I once knew what it meant but have completely forgotten, and now need to explain it to myself."[/s]
    "Please explain that article to me in a way that I'll understand it, from the perspective that I never had knowledge about the field, and in the fashion I'd use to explain it to myself if I already had the knowledge."
    Versus
    "Please explain that article to me in a way that I'll understand it, from the perspective that I never had knowledge about the field, and in the fashion I'd use to explain it to someone else [insert specific characteristics of listener] if I already had the knowledge."
    Versus
    "Please explain that article to me in a way that I'll understand it, from the perspective of character A is describing the article to character B, where character A is [X] and character B is [Y]." (replace X and Y with names of public figures, living or deceased)

    Edited to add:

    The mortality rate of Mpox Clade Ib is approximately equivalent to that of COVID 19.
    The age of the most vulnerable cohort is inverted, COVID 19 was more deadly for the very old, Mpox I is more deadly for the very young.

    What are the possible implications of that?

    * I have seen it referred to as Clade I and as Clade Ib. One is surely more exact.
    Last edited by Ellsworth; 07-03-2024 at 08:33 PM. Reason: No warm up, 20 edits

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    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/mpox/dr-c...deadlier-clade
    https://healthpolicy-watch.news/firs...e-alarm-bells/

    December 2023, no cases outside affected region in Africa.
    March 2023, first case outside Africa. Location: Belgium.

    March 2023 to July 2024?

    AFAIK, the current test for Mpox cannot differentiate between the three Clades.
    So it would perhaps take a spike in specific symptoms (infection rates, mortality rates, increase in child victims and issues with pregnancies, et cetera) before genetic tests are done to determine if Clade ! has entered a new geographic region.
    Last edited by Ellsworth; 07-03-2024 at 08:47 AM. Reason: No warm up, 2 edits

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    https://www.outlookindia.com/interna...hildren-killed

    ^ Is a major reason why this outbreak might have a different social impact.

    *consider concept patriarchy as expressed at sea, "Women and children first."

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    https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2...-cross-borders
    "The clade Ib strain has also been spreading through non-sexual contact between people -- including among families or children playing together at school -- marking a major change from previous outbreaks, the researchers said.

    There has been a "high amount" of transmission between mothers or carers and children, Lang said."

    https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/def...-June-2024.pdf

    I am left wondering why there's wasn't a lot of main stream media exposure, regarding the risk of this Clade Ib Mpox, before pride month.
    I'm fairly tuned into news, I never heard about it.

    I hope that new fangled FB/Google ads were used to spread public service announcements to the at risk / vulnerable cohorts before and during June.
    And I'd argue that any negative consequences (i.e. infection rate increase or introduction /spread of Clade Ib) is partly blamable on that 'system failure.'

    And I wonder why Mpox Clade Ib was largely not getting main stream-ish press, until the end of June.
    An abundance of caution? Economics? Politics? Accident?

    2024, a special/rare year in history when most of the world votes.

  5. #5
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    There's been little major changes on the Mpox Clade 1b front.
    Latest decent write up. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/oth...ps/ar-BB1qwPkp

    Today I saw this article by a somewhat suspicious source
    https://www.nst.com.my/news/crime-co...breaching-mpox

    So I tried to learn more about the publisher to gauge it's potential bias.
    Near as I can tell the phone country code is +3. Albania?
    I place that source as disinfo for psychological / political effect until proven otherwise.
    Last edited by Ellsworth; 07-24-2024 at 08:21 AM. Reason: No warm up, 1 edit

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ellsworth View Post
    Today I saw this article by a somewhat suspicious source
    https://www.nst.com.my/news/crime-co...breaching-mpox

    So I tried to learn more about the publisher to gauge it's potential bias.
    Near as I can tell the phone country code is +3. Albania?
    I place that source as disinfo for psychological / political effect until proven otherwise.
    The New Straight Times appears to be Singapore / Malaysian based.
    Supposed independent review label it as having a Center Right bias
    It is connected with the 'Straight Times' due to publishing requirements in some countries.
    Founded in the late 1800s.

    Source appears to be legitimate.

    The source clearly illustrates how easy Mpox Clade I could be utilized as a bio-weapon.
    Pick the right world event (Soccer/football playoffs, Olympics, Pride month, et cetera), send in some infected sex workers (either gender), and then event attendees head back to countries and states of origin.

    100% low tech.

    Good morning, that's a bad day.
    Last edited by Ellsworth; 07-27-2024 at 08:08 PM. Reason: No warm up, 1 edit

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    I did not expect to wake up to fires in Paris.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/fren...-olympics.html

    But I did wake up with all the details worked out about how to maximize the weaponized spread of Mpox Clade Ib by utilizing a combination of sex workers and clients.

    So gawd damn easy it's alarming. At any point, the pot boils.

    A bit of history:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_R...oterror_attack

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    https://bigislandnow.com/2024/07/25/...nolulu-county/

    I'm happy to see that new cases are being checked by labs for Clade status Ib versus IIb.
    AFAIK field tests cannot differentiate Clade IIb from Clade Ib, it's just a dumb Pos or Neg.
    I believe those tests are in use at some border crossings, and positives tests are told to self-quarantine.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-...ions/104119360
    Last edited by Ellsworth; 07-26-2024 at 07:37 AM. Reason: No warm up, 1 edit

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    https://energycommerce.house.gov/pos...eaten-subpoena
    "Since January, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported more than 4,500 suspected mpox cases and nearly 300 deaths, numbers that have roughly tripled from the same period last year, according to the World Health Organization."

    Approx 7% death rate.

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    https://apnews.com/article/mpox-case...4aa7dc63e4395b
    "The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report released Wednesday that mpox, also known as monkeypox, has now been detected in 10 African countries this year including Congo, which has more than 96% of all cases and deaths.

    Officials said nearly 70% of cases in Congo are in children younger than 15, who also accounted for 85% of deaths.

    There have been an estimated 14,250 cases so far this year, nearly as many as all of last year. Compared to the first seven months of 2023, the Africa CDC said cases are up 160% and deaths are up 19%, to 456."


    This will likely be my last post on the Mpox Clade I topic
    Because now you know,
    Things get worse, or things get better.

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